Hurricane Erin 1995 — Sebastian, Florida

Hurricane Erin came ashore early on August 2, 1995 as a Category 1 hurricane, its center crossing the coast between Vero Beach and Sebastian Inlet in Indian River County (NWS Melbourne).

That puts the north edge of the landfall zone at Sebastian Inlet, the same point that served as the warning breakpoint during the storm. The National Hurricane Center preliminary report places landfall around 0600 UTC on August 2 near Vero Beach, with estimated maximum one-minute winds of 75 knots (NOAA Hurricane Research Division). The Weather Prediction Center summary gives the same landfall near Vero Beach as a Category 1 with 85 mph winds (Weather Prediction Center).

The Storm Data time and the hurricane center time differ only because of time zones. The NWS Melbourne Storm Data narrative says the center came ashore near Vero Beach around 1 AM EST and moved northwest across Indian River County into Osceola, Orange and Lake counties (Storm Data, page 29). Eastern Standard Time runs one hour behind the Eastern Daylight Time in use in August, so 1 AM EST is 2 AM EDT, which is 0600 UTC. That matches the NHC time and the office synopsis, which says the center crossed between Vero Beach and Sebastian Inlet just before 2am.

Radar placed the eye precisely. Melbourne WSR-88D images from that night show the eye nearing Vero Beach at 1:12 AM (NWS Melbourne radar images, page 7) and, at 2:13 AM on August 2, moving inland south of Sebastian Inlet (NWS Melbourne radar images, page 9). The preliminary report reached the same conclusion: based on radar, the circulation center crossed the coast between Vero Beach and Sebastian Inlet, while Melbourne stayed just north of the eye (preliminary report, page 30).

On the morning of August 1, 1995, Sebastian Inlet was the northern end of the hurricane warning, so Indian River County was inside it and Brevard County was not (NWS Melbourne, page 2).

The National Hurricane Center advisory issued at 8 AM EDT on August 1 kept hurricane warnings for the Florida east coast from Sebastian Inlet southward through the Florida Keys, with a tropical storm warning from north of Sebastian Inlet to New Smyrna Beach (NHC advisory 6A). The NWS Melbourne account notes that at that point landfall was less than 18 hours away. After coordination with the hurricane center, Brevard County was added to the warning in the 12:25 p.m. Hurricane Local Statement, a step the Melbourne office credits with reducing the risk to the lives of many barrier island residents of Brevard County (NWS Melbourne, page 2).

Indian River County acted the same day. A Hurricane Local Statement reproduced in the NWS report states that Indian River County called for voluntary evacuations for those in mobile homes and along the barrier islands, and that Indian River and Brevard counties should rush preparations for possible hurricane force wind and a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet near and north of the center (Hurricane Local Statement, page 7). By 9:38 p.m. the office was telling residents that the greatest threat of damaging winds and surge would fall on southern Brevard and Indian River counties through 1 a.m. (NWS Melbourne, page 3).

At 1 AM EDT on August 2 the hurricane center reported the eyewall moving onshore near Fort Pierce and Vero Beach, a 70 mph gust at Vero Beach, and the center about 15 miles southeast of Vero Beach (NHC advisory 9A).

NOAA records place the main events in Indian River County between late evening on August 1 and about 2 a.m. on August 2, 1995, as rainbands reached Vero Beach and the eye passed between Vero Beach and Sebastian Inlet.

The event log kept by NWS Melbourne records a HAM radio report of a 55 knot gust at Vero Beach at 11:38 p.m. on August 1, a gust to 61 knots at Vero Beach at 12:49 a.m., and the entry that the center made landfall near Vero Beach at 1:00 a.m. (NWS event log, page 27). Radar had shown strong rainbands approaching shore near Vero Beach at 11:34 p.m. (NWS radar images, page 4). At 12:36 a.m. the Hurricane Local Statement said eyewitness reports indicated close to hurricane force winds along the coast at Vero Beach (Hurricane Local Statement, page 16).

The wind reading behind Erin's official landfall intensity came from a Florida Institute of Technology anemometer at Sebastian Inlet, which recorded a one-minute wind of 74.6 knots, about 86 mph (NOAA Hurricane Research Division).

That single Sebastian Inlet reading, from an instrument that made one observation per hour, is the basis for the official 75 knot landfall intensity. The preliminary report says it coincided with one of Erin's strongest convective cells at 0500 UTC, located in the northwestern eyewall (NHC preliminary report). Converted at 1.15 mph per knot, 74.6 knots is roughly 86 mph and the 75 knot estimate about 86 mph, close to the 85 mph figure the Weather Prediction Center uses.

Vero Beach readings had to be caught by hand. The preliminary report lists a Vero Beach gust of 61 knots from 360 degrees at 0449Z, notes that there were no gust recorders at Melbourne airport or Vero Beach, and gives the Vero Beach airport lowest pressure as 986.1 mb, or 29.12 inches, at 0554Z (preliminary report, page 30). Storm Data lists a 70 mph gust at the Vero Beach airport (Storm Data, page 29); 61 knots times 1.15 is about 70 mph, so the two figures agree.

Rain in Indian River County fell well short of the forecast: the August 1 local statement had warned that rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches were possible over the area (page 7). The report lists 0.56 inch at Vero Beach on August 1 and 1.90 inches on August 2, which add to 2.46 inches, and 3 to 5 inches during landfall from Vero Beach and Melbourne inland to Yeehaw Junction (preliminary report, page 31). Vero Beach 4W logged 3.14 inches for the event (page 30). The heaviest rain fell farther north: the report says the Melbourne and Palm Bay area in Brevard County received by far the maximum rainfall.

On the Indian River County side, NWS Melbourne found Erin's effects minimal south of the landfall point (NWS Melbourne, page 33), while waves heavily damaged the jetty at Sebastian Inlet (NWS Melbourne, page 31).

The preliminary report states that south of where Erin made landfall in Indian River and neighboring counties, storm effects were minimal, with minor tree and sign damage and minor flooding of a few low-lying areas (NWS Melbourne, page 33). A survey of the coastline from Sebastian to Cape Canaveral found no significant damage from storm tides; Erin's main impact there was on the dunes, and a storm tide of 2 to 4 feet was estimated. Beach erosion was minor from about Vero Beach to Melbourne Beach, and the jetty at Sebastian Inlet sustained heavy damage from waves (preliminary report, page 31).

The heavier wind damage lay just north of Sebastian Inlet, in Brevard County. Storm Data puts the greatest damage along the coast from Cape Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet, including Satellite Beach, Indian Harbor Beach and Melbourne Beach, and counts 37 structures destroyed, 81 with major damage and 443 with minor damage in Brevard County (Storm Data, page 29). The event log for 3 a.m. on August 2 notes significant roof damage to high rise structures along Brevard beaches from Cape Canaveral south to Sebastian Inlet (NWS event log, page 28). Those figures belong to Brevard, the county on the north side of the inlet, not to Sebastian.

The NOAA sources cited here give no separate damage figure for Sebastian or Indian River County. Statewide, the American Insurance Services Group estimated $350 million in insured losses in Florida, and the hurricane center tentatively estimated total U.S. losses at $700 million, according to the preliminary report (NOAA Hurricane Research Division). NWS Melbourne reported no deaths or injuries directly attributable to the landfall in its area, which includes Indian River County (NWS Melbourne, page 4).