Weather in October in South Brevard, Florida

At KMLB, the airport station used by the Palm Bay forecast, the normal October high is 83.5 degrees, 4.1 below the September normal of 87.6, under the 1991 to 2020 normals.

KMLB, at Melbourne International Airport, is the station behind the current conditions on the National Weather Service Palm Bay forecast (NWS Palm Bay forecast); the Micco forecast, used for Barefoot Bay, pulls its readings from Sebastian Municipal Airport (KX26) (NWS Micco forecast). The normals below are the ones NWS Melbourne prints beside each month's KMLB observations.

The September column comes from the NWS Melbourne report for September 2026 (NWS Melbourne climate report, September 2026) and the October column from the report for October 2025 (NWS Melbourne climate report, October 2025). The normal low falls 4.7 degrees between the two months (73.7 minus 69.0), a little more than the high, and a 90 degree afternoon becomes the exception, 1.6 in an average October against 7.8 in September.

Cooling still outweighs heating in October. The KMLB normal is 354 cooling degree days against 5 heating degree days, by the October 2025 report (KMLB October 2025 degree days).

The ocean stays warmer than an October night at the airport. The NOAA NCEI coastal water temperature guide puts the October average at 81.0 degrees at Trident Pier in Port Canaveral, against the 69.0 degree KMLB normal low (NCEI coastal water temperature guide).

The October extremes at Melbourne International Airport are 96 degrees, from October 2, 1959, and 41 degrees, reached on October 17, 1977 and October 24, 1937, in the NWS Melbourne report for October 2025 (NWS Melbourne climate report, October 2025).

NWS Melbourne dates the median start of the dry season at Melbourne to October 17 and at Vero Beach, the station below Micco and Barefoot Bay, to October 19, so the switch usually happens in the second half of October.

Those dates come from the NWS Melbourne study of wet and dry season onset, which uses records from 1950 to the present and reports medians, meaning half the years change earlier and half later (NWS Melbourne wet and dry season onset). Orlando, Daytona Beach and Sanford switch earliest, on October 15, and Fort Pierce, farther down the coast, on October 20.

Cooler air follows within days. The same study puts the first reading below 60 degrees, its start of the cooler season, at October 22 for both Melbourne and Vero Beach, and the first reading below 50, its colder season, at November 10 for Melbourne and November 13 for Vero Beach (NWS Melbourne season onset dates). The Melbourne median for the first reading under 60 degrees therefore falls in the final third of October.

The NWS Melbourne Central Florida dry season outlook covers November 1, 2026 to April 30, 2027; the office issued it on September 30, 2026 and lists January 2027 for the next issuance (NWS Melbourne dry season outlook). Its headline on the office site points to an increased potential for well above normal rainfall and severe weather in the coming dry season.

October rain averages 4.86 inches at Melbourne International Airport, down from 7.63 inches in September, in the 1991 to 2020 normals NWS Melbourne lists for KMLB.

A typical October at the airport has 10.2 days with measurable rain, 6.0 days with 0.10 inch or more, 2.9 with 0.50 inch and 1.2 with an inch or more. The range from year to year is wide: the KMLB October record is 13.86 inches, from 1956, and the driest October brought only a trace, in 2010 (NWS Melbourne October rain normals and records, KMLB).

Heavy October rain along this coast is tied to stalled fronts. The NWS Melbourne lightning climatology notes that in October the most noticeable flash maximums occur along the east coast from the Cape on south, from convectively active heavy rain events that set up when frontal systems stall over the region (NWS Melbourne Florida lightning climatology). That stretch of coast includes Palm Bay, Malabar and Micco.

Overall lightning keeps falling. NWS Melbourne estimates about 1,100 strikes in Brevard County in October, under half of the roughly 2,461 in September and far above the roughly 31 in November (NWS Melbourne lightning facts and figures). October storms near Palm Bay can still turn severe: on October 29, 1986, a tornado in Palm Bay damaged the roofs of 12 homes and moved a pickup truck 15 feet, as the NWS Melbourne October hazardous weather history records (NWS Melbourne October hazardous weather history).

October 2025, the latest complete October, came in slightly cool and very wet at Melbourne International Airport, with a 76.1 degree mean against a 76.3 normal and 11.50 inches of rain against a normal of 4.86.

October 2026 was still under way when this page was checked, so the figures below come from the KMLB report for October 2025, issued November 1, 2025, which also lists October 2024 (NWS Melbourne climate report, October 2025).

That total ran 6.64 inches above normal, with 5 days of an inch or more against a normal of 1.2. The biggest rain came early: 3.38 inches fell at the airport across October 9 and 10, 2025, the greatest 24 hour total of the month. No afternoon reached 90 degrees; the warmest was 88 on October 27. The month ended with a fall morning, 53 degrees on October 31, and KMLB logged 3 heating degree days, against a normal of 5 (NWS Melbourne climate report, October 2025).

The same KMLB report tallies wind and sky cover. The average wind speed was 10.8 mph, the top gust was 48 mph out of the east (090 degrees) on October 26, and the report counted 14 fair, 12 partly cloudy and 5 cloudy days. Fog showed up on 16 days and thunderstorms on 7 (KMLB October 2025 report).

Last verified: October 18, 2026. Rechecked: the NWS Melbourne monthly KMLB reports (September 2026, October 2025) and the NWS Melbourne season onset study.

Yes, the National Hurricane Center lists June 1 to November 30 as the official Atlantic season and places the bulk of activity between mid August and mid October, so early October still falls inside the busiest stretch for Palm Bay and Micco.

The National Hurricane Center climatology places the season peak on September 10 and adds that tropical cyclones can form outside the official dates (National Hurricane Center climatology). For Malabar, Grant-Valkaria and Barefoot Bay, the official season still has more than a month to go when October ends.

October storms that reached South Brevard in past years are not repeated here; the Digital Towns hurricane history page for the region, /florida/south-brevard/disasters/hurricane-history/, lists them by date for Palm Bay and Micco.